‘Next-level urgency’: EU leaders spring into action as reality of US pivot to Russia hits
‘A European/ˌjʊərəˈpiːən/-Russian/ˈrʌʃ(ə)n/ war would be a catastrophe/kəˈtæstrəfi/ for China as well,’ analyst /ˈænəlɪst/ says as Beijing looks for opportunities amid/əˈmɪd/ shifting geopolitics
During dark times in Europe, which are arriving with alarming/əˈlɑːmɪŋ/ frequency these days, optimists/ˈɒptɪmɪst/ like to say that the continent/ˈkɒntɪnənt/ was “forged/fɔːdʒd/ in crisis/ˈkraɪsɪs/”.
The quote from one of the European Union’s founding fathers, Jean Monnet, has been wheeled/wiːld/ out during banking crashes/ˈkræʃɪz/ and sovereign/ˈsɒvrɪn/ debt /det/crises, the coronavirus/kəˈrəʊnəvaɪrəs/ pandemic/pænˈdemɪk/ and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to show that the notoriously/nəʊˈtɔːriəsli/ divided bloc/blɒk/ comes together at moments of true cataclysm/ˈkætəklɪzəm/.
In the cafes/ˈkæfeɪz/ of Brussels/ˈbrʌs(ə)lz/, it has been heard more than ever in recent weeks, with various/ˈveəriəs/ degrees of enthusiasm/ɪnˈθjuːziæzəm/, as Europe faces what may be its greatest crisis of all: abandonment/əˈbændənmənt/ by the United States, which has provided the security/sɪˈkjʊərəti/ blanket/ˈblæŋkɪt/ that has allowed widespread peace and prosperity/prɒˈsperəti/ since World War II.
After months of denial, when it was hoped that returning US President Donald Trump would stand by Europe and Ukraine, the penny has now dropped – among even the most ardent of transatlanticists – that the bloc is on its own.
“Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader,” said the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas of Estonia, in the aftermath of the defenestration of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House on Friday.
In the days that followed, Trump’s pivot to Moscow only deepened. Reports emerged on Tuesday that he was cancelling aid to Ukraine, while on Wednesday it was reported that he would stop sharing intelligence with Kyiv, a move that would severely hamper its efforts to target Russian forces.
Even as the bad news kept coming, however, some European optimists are getting more vocal. Taboos have been dropping like flies as political action on the continent takes place at an uncharacteristic speed. Notoriously slow Europe, they say, is finally grinding into gear.
This week, as the US’ position became crystal clear, the Europeans were fast-tracking plans to rearm themselves. On Tuesday morning, the European Commission proposed lending €150 billion to governments to help them boost military spending.
That evening, the German chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said Berlin would change its constitution to exempt defence and security spending from the country’s famous debt brake, and would launch a €500 billion (US$535 billion) infrastructure fund to upgrade its transport, energy grids and housing network over the next decade.
There is a renewed debate across the continent about whether more countries should develop nuclear weapons to fend off the threat of Putin. To compound matters for peaceniks, a bonfire of green legislation is burning as the bloc pivots towards resilience and security.
“Europe will do it because Europe feels the threat with its own skin,” former Ukraine foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told the Post.
“One thing is to have to feel the threat coming from Russia, but knowing that the US is going to defend you. But knowing that Russia poses a physical threat and the US is not going to defend you, that takes your sense of threat and urgency to a completely new level.”
Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, views the need to hike defence spending as a potential boon to a Europe that is otherwise in danger of deindustrialising.
“The EU remains a funny animal. From the outside, it looks like a rich bloc with a strong industrial base and lower debt than the US or China – surely capable of rearming quickly and cheaply if it just coordinated. Inside, leaders are too busy distrusting each other to act, squabbling while the house burns,” he said.
Two crucial leaders’ meetings within the next fortnight could help determine how quickly the bloc changes. China, meanwhile, will be watching anxiously for what sort of Europe emerges.
Beijing senses immediate openings as the US backs off from the transatlantic alliance. It has dialled up its rhetoric in support of the existing order, in what Europeans have noticed to be in great contrast to the US.
China has long urged Europe to follow the “correct form of strategic autonomy”, a phrase popularised by French President Emmanuel Macron during Trump’s first term to imply independence from any other powers.
In China’s usage, however, it is seen as shorthand for separation from the US. Now, it can see that schism happening in real time.
Its diplomats have been touring Europe on a “charm offensive”, buoyed by the Western fracture, but not making any immediate offers to help Europe peel further away from Washington.
EU-China ties have become increasingly tense in recent years over Beijing’s relations with Moscow and economic imbalances that European leaders claim is leading to underpriced exports arriving at their ports, damaging local industries.
In Europe, many are open to taking the sting out of the relationship – even its top hawk, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Even before Trump’s clarifying shift on Ukraine she said the EU could “engage constructively with China – and find solutions in our mutual interest. And I think we can find agreements that could even expand our trade and investment ties”.
But while the geopolitical ground may be fertile for a rapprochement, Europe may not walk straight back into Beijing’s arms.
While being receptive to improving ties, von der Leyen has been clear that de-risking is here to stay, meaning the hunt for new partners and the quest to reduce dependency on China continues.
Last week, she led 21 commissioners on a trip to India, a pointed move that officials said was an effort to find alternatives to both superpowers.
“Overall I see a lot of alignment between EU and India on concerns we have vis-a-vis China. Coming together at a geopolitically interesting and tense time, things are shaping up and aligning for us,” a senior EU official said.
An EU-India statement pledged to have an exchange “regarding best practices in the screening of foreign direct investments, which is an area of growing importance to foster economic security”, suggesting the pair could even team up in some areas of China policy.
“This is a decisive moment for the EU to become an important pole in global relations. There is a world beyond the US-China rivalry (or accommodation) that will not benefit from any possible binary division,” said Romana Vlahutin, a European ambassador working as a distinguished fellow for geostrategy at the German Marshall Fund.
“Europe is economically the strongest element of that world and can and should engage in peer support, including by providing investment and trade relations that strengthen both Europe and its partners,” she said.
Legislatively too, the signs are mixed for Beijing. While the tone of engagement may improve, Europe is likely to continue launching trade and competition cases until it sees an improvement in the overcapacity situation in China’s industrial economy.
After launching a new programme to help steel producers this week, von der Leyen said “product prices have dropped due to increasing global non-market overcapacity and decreased demand”, alluding to ongoing issues in China.
The Clean Industrial Deal introduced last week, meanwhile, will insist that European goods are prioritised over dominant Chinese products in cleantech industries, while firms investing in Europe may be asked to transfer their technology.
On the other hand, China may benefit from von der Leyen’s move to gut green initiatives.
Chinese electric vehicle makers could win from Monday’s move to water down penalties for European car companies breaching emissions targets, while the decision to hollow-out recently-adopted rules around supply chain due diligence may allow many European companies to continue doing business in parts of China.
But overhanging all the commercial issues is geopolitics. Observers warned that just because the US has sided with Russia, Europe would not stop pressuring China to limit its relations with Moscow.
“Actors that are hostile to the West no longer have to take into account that when push comes to shove, Europe and the US will always be on the same side,” said Sven Biscop, a political scientist at Brussels’ Egmont Institute.
“China hopefully realises that it has a great interest in restraining Russia and putting pressure on it to respect any ceasefire. For Europe is Beijing’s indispensable economic partner too, hence a European-Russian war would be a catastrophe for China as well.”